2011-02-12 – Leave Oak Harbor

2011-02-12 – Leave Oak Harbor

Weather forecast at 2100 2011-02-11

INLAND WATERS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS
Synopsis…SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WAS STILL WELL OFF TO THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING… RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS TIMING WAS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM…WITH SE FLOW INCREASING ON MON.
Tonight…Light wind…becoming E 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves building to 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Sat…SE wind rising to 25 to 35 kt…then becoming S late in the afternoon. Wind waves building to 4 to 6 ft. Rain…mainly in the afternoon.
Sat Night…S wind 15 to 25 kt…becoming W by midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Evening rain…then showers likely.
Sun…SW wind 5 to 15 kt…becoming SE in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun Night…SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon…SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tue…S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wed…W wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.

Slack Tide at Deception Pass will be at 0845 Saturday Morning. We need to leave Oak Harbor at 0545 at the latest.

0957 2011-02-12: Change of plans. When we got up at 5am this morning, we discovered that the storm came in early. We had been planning to be past Strawberry Point before the winds kicked up over 20, but I was measuring gusts over 30 this morning. We would have been fine if we could have gotten through Deception Pass before the winds got strong, but navigating out of the Marina and Oak Harbor in darkness with strong winds would have been too risky, so we are staying in Oak Harbor for the day.

Fortunately, last night we moved the boat from our normal berth over to the North side of the marina (where Frank normally has his boat). With the winds blowing S, SE, the boat is being blown away from the dock, whereas, in our normal berth, we would have been blown against the dock and would never be able to get out, even in 10 kt winds. The boats are packed in pretty tight there to make room for the dredging currently going on. In our temporary location, we have clear shot out of the marina.

The wind is supposed to lighten up tonight and early tomorrow, so are plans are to try again tomorrow (or possibly later tonight) and get to Cornet Bay, just before Deception Pass.

Sunday’s slack tide at Deception Pass is at 0953. Current weather forecast looks good for us departing Sunday morning around 0700.

Here are the wind maps for today at 1000 and tomorrow at 0700. The graph at the top of each map tells you the wind speed based on color. Clearly, tomorrow looks a lot better than today:

Today at 10am (Now). Notice yellow where we are

Tomorrow at 7am

Current Weather map from NOAA is shown below:

Here is the weather forecast as of 1000 this morning. Notice it now says “Hazardous marine conditions.”

Hazardous marine condition(s):
Gale Warning
Small Craft Advisory


Synopsis…A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT 245 NM OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE INLAND WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING…RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER STRONG FRONT TO AFFECT THE REGION ON MON FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
Today…SE wind rising to 25 to 35 kt…then becoming S in the afternoon. Wind waves building to 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Tonight…S wind 25 to 35 kt…becoming W 20 to 30 kt by midnight. wind easing and becoming SW after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft… Subsiding. Evening rain…then a chance of showers.
Sun…S wind 5 to 15 kt…becoming SE in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sun Night…SE wind rising to 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves building to 2 to 4 ft.
Mon…SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft.
Tue…SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wed…W wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.

1852 2011-02-12: Looks like we may get lucky tomorrow. The latest weather forecast shows an improvement.

7am – When we leave Oak Harbor

10am – Wind picks up some

1pm – Wind dies down again

4pm – Looks good to Port Angeles

The rain forecast is also better for tomorrow. J

I will check the weather again in the morning.

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